The Online Journal of Insight, Satire, Desire, Wit and Observation

A Brief History of the Second Korean War

Obviously this is a hypothetical and I most sincerely hope it remains so!

The Second Korean War began the night of Sunday, August 20, 2017, though few people knew it at the time. Power started going down in Pyongyang and the few other North Korean cities with significant electrification. Residents in the countryside reported a strange black fibrous substance falling from the sky and hanging from electrical wires, power substations, and other systems. A few reported seeing parachutists or men gliding down from the sky.

Tensions had been high since the launch of four North Korean missiles toward the US unincorporated territory of Guam earlier that week. One missile had malfunctioned on launch, another suffered a mysterious in-flight malfunction and exploded, but two had arrived time on target near US territorial waters. In response, first North Korea, followed by South Korea and Japan, had announced a full mobilization. The US went to DEFCON 4, and remained in a status of watchful readiness as increasingly frantic international efforts were made to resolve the Korea Crisis, as it came to be called.

On Friday, the 18th of August, the US had quietly gone to DEFCON 3, and all US Air Force, SOCOM, and Marine assets were mobilized. The EU and NATO members, except the UK and former Warsaw Pact members, plus Turkey, declared neutrality. Australia declared solidarity with the US, but New Zealand declared it was withdrawing from the ANZUS Pact. Canada likewise declared neutrality.

China began to mobilize its mobile forces, and Chinese positions along the Yalu river were reinforced by several hundred thousand troops.

As with the Gulf War, the US planned to begin offensive operations against North Korea on the dark of the moon, first inserting Special Operations and UK SAS and SBS troops as forward observers, and then dropping conductive carbon-fiber chaff to disrupt electrical and communications facilities.

The war began in earnest at night at 04:00 South Korean time (+9:00 UTC) August 21, 2017, when the South Korean port of Busan went up in a mushroom cloud. The underwater burst also resulted in a large tsunami which did significant damage along the coast. It is believed that the device was delivered either via a North Korean suicide sub or half-submarine, or else in container freight. The US amphibious assault ship USS America, the already damaged destroyer USS John McCain, the destroyer USS Chafee, the US hospital ship USNS Mercy, and a number of support and logistics vessels were severely damaged and irradiated and had to be evacuated and scuttled. The US 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit suffered 80% casualties.

Surprisingly, Russia declared solidarity with the US and South Korea, allowing its airspace and ports to be used by the US (but not Japan or South Korea). As a result, China declared a full mobilization, followed by Russia, Eastern Europe, and then NATO.

The US 7th Fleet dispersed as it expected to be a prime target for any additional nuclear weapons, and the US went to DEFCON 2.

President Trump went to Congress and gained an almost-unanimous Declaration of War. As soon as he had this in hand, Trump announced the firing and detention of Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller and Assistant Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, and imposed a nationwide State of Emergency and dusk-to-dawn curfew under NSPD-51.

All interstate highways were closed to non-military traffic. All civil air traffic in the US was shut down, and civilian airliners were drafted for use as troop and supply transports. As in the Cuban Missile Crisis, young children were wowed by the distinctive quadruple contrails of ancient B-52’s going to and from their fail-safe points, and US citizens particularly in the US midwest and west were rocked by near-constant sonic booms as fighters scrambled to fly combat air patrol missions over American cities.

Several US cities experienced mass protests and rioting, which were put down with military force, resulting in thousands of casualties. Washington, DC, New York, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland, Oregon had their municipal governments replaced by military governors.

Following the US Declaration of War, the US went to DEFCON I, and strategic, non-nuclear strikes began against North Korean air defense, command and control, and strategic missile facilities.

In response, North Korea attempted to launch its remaining medium and long-range nuclear missiles. None of these reached ground or naval targets and successfully detonated, but two nuclear devices were detonated at an altitude of 400 km, one over Seoul, and one over southern Japan, resulting in substantial electromagnetic pulses. The fear created by this massive aurora and disruption of the earth’s magnetic field, and the failure of many electrical transformers and computer systems created great unrest and political dislocation resulting in the fall of both the Japanese and South Korean Governments. But with different results, whereas Japan declared neutrality and banned combatant ships and planes from its territory, the new South Korean junta declared all-out war.

The territory along the North Korea/South Korea border, particularly the 30 km from the border to the outskirts of Seoul, became a hellish free-fire zone. It is estimated that 300,000 shells landed on Seoul in the first hour following the South Korean official Declaration of War. The bombardment and subsequent firestorm, as well as the use of nerve gas and biological agents, resulted in huge loss of life. The South Korean highways were jammed with people trying to flee in all directions, even in some cases, toward the front lines, and military maneuver became all but impossible for mechanized and armored units.

Although the advance by North Korean troops toward Seoul was stymied a mere 20 km into South Korea, and also stopped just over the border at the eastern coastal road, infiltration units quickly cut off pockets of ROK and US troops between the cities of Yeoncheon, Cheorwan, Yangu, and Goesong. The ROK troops fought stoutly for a week, but following another underwater nuclear blast in the channel near Inchon, and widespread use of North Korean school children as sappers to clear minefields and as human bombs, the northern pockets became demoralized and surrendered between August 30 and September 2. Small groups of special forces and SAS troops as well as local ad hoc groupings of ROK forces and militia kept up a guerrilla war in the besieged cities and mountains, until they were decimated and forced to retreat by the use of chemical weapons, which also killed the better part of the civilian populations in those cities.

Meanwhile, a UN Security Council resolution supporting South Korea and the US under Article 7 was vetoed by China. However, as in the first Korean War, a General Assembly resolution by the US was overwhelmingly passed. Unlike the First Korean War, this resolution was co-sponsored and supported by Russia.

Consequently, a small trickle of reinforcements from nations which could provide their own transport, such as the UK, Turkey, India, and Australia, began to arrive in theater. The US 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force, The US Third Marine Division, comprised of 3, 4, and 12 Marine Regiment, and 1 Battalion, First Special Forces Group, arrived from Japan. They were joined by the US 75th Ranger Regiment, US 10th Mountain Division, 86 Brigade Combat Team and 36 Infantry Division, 3rd Brigade Combat Team. US 3 and 4 Marine Regiments along with the British 1 and 2 battalion, Royal Gurkha Rifles, reinforced the East Coast road, setting up roadblocks and ambushes along the road and inland strategic passes.

The remaining reinforcements, joined by Turkish 4 Commando Brigade, were airdropped/airlifted into central Korea and attempted to stabilize a front there, using Chuncheon as their command post under the rubric of UN First Army. They were also unofficially reinforced by elements of the Russian 10th Separate Special Purpose Brigade, and French 2nd Foreign Paratroop regiment, operating as “volunteers” with the sanction of their respective governments.

While the ROK units proved to be stalwart in static defense of prepared positions and urban areas, they quickly became demoralized in the confused central highlands and began to flee south, jamming the roads and making reinforcements and logistics very difficult.

In the meanwhile, the US and allied airforces had established air superiority over North Korea by mid-September and began to bomb front line troops and rear areas and roads and other strategic targets almost at will. This resulted in a large migration of North Koreans fleeing north to China, mirroring the bug-out which was now fleeing south in north-central South Korea. This threatened to overwhelm the Chinese on the frontier until the US, probably with tacit Chinese approval, used cruise missiles and drones to take out the bridges over the Yalu.

Surviving elements of the US 2nd Division and ROK forces in the Seoul theater actually managed to move forward and cross the North Korean frontier, supported by an armored thrust from the newly-arrived 2nd Armored Combat Team, 4rth Cavalry Regiment, and support units from the US 1st Infantry Division, as well as 2 Brigade, US 25th Infantry Division and US 40 Division, 81st Infantry Brigade. They were stopped when, ten miles into North Korea, their second-echelon forces were crippled by a concealed North Korean crude atomic bomb, the “mother of all IED’s” as one officer bitterly, and famously, described it to an embedded reporter.

This left the leading elements exposed, and a brutal close-quarters fight ensued, where human waves of North Korean schoolchildren strapped with mines and crude improvised bombs were mowed down by the trapped US and ROK forces. Until their ammunition ran low. At that point it became a literal hand-to-hand and house-to-house fight, with heavy casualties on both sides.

In the central theater, things were not so good for the UN forces. The bugout of ROK troops which began in mid-September, became a rout by early October, which was only stopped by the advent of cold and mud season. Chinese troops from PRC 12 and 13 army groups were now filling in for the exhausted NK troops, once again under the rubric of being “volunteers.”

The entry of substantial numbers of Chinese elite special forces and chemical weapons troops caused the complete collapse and rout of the central front, with many ROK units surrendering en masse. The Gurkhas, US Marines, SAS and Turkish forces began a fighting withdrawal, eerily similar to the 1st Korean War Battle of Chosin Reservoir.

Russia and the US confronted China (rather hypocritically given their own use of “volunteer” forces) and demanded that the Chinese withdraw. China refused and withdrew its membership from the UN, leading to a further Chapter 7 Security Council Resolution which was passed 13-0, with only Uruguay abstaining.

Noting the defiance of China, Russian marines and special forces seized the North Korean ports of Chonjin and Sonbong.

China declared war on Russia and began a massive invasion along a wide front. This went badly for them. In areas, Russian armored and airborne units penetrated deep into China. China in turn, activated its nuclear mines along the primary Russian invasion routes. Russia retaliated by depopulating Harbin and Nanjing with enhanced-radiation “neutron” bombs in the “Second Nanjing Massacre.”

Fearing losing their strategic nuclear force, and feeling they were now in a use them or lose them posture, China launched a massive counterforce nuclear strike against Russia, South Korea, Japan and the US, resulting in the destruction of what was left of Seoul, Busan (again), several ports in Okinawa, Yokosuka, Nagasaki and Hiroshima in Japan, Ulan-Ude, Vladivostok, and Petropavlosk, Russia, and Port Darwin, Australia. Japan’s declaration of neutrality was to no avail, as the US had perforce simply refused to quit its facilities there and in the turmoil surrounding the fall of the Liberal Party government, Japan was in no position to enforce its demands.

In the US were destroyed: Guam, Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Nome, Alaska, Pearl Harbor, San Diego, San Francisco, and Livermore, California, Hanford, Washington State, Los Alamos, White Sands, and Albuquerque, New Mexico, Groom Lake and the Nevada Test Site, Vandenberg AFB, Edwards AFB, Cape Canaveral, Colorado Springs, Kansas City and Lawrence, Kansas, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, Aiken, South Carolina, Amarillo and Houston, Texas, Mount Weather, and Wallops and Norfolk, Virginia as well as Thule, Greenland and Portsmouth, Menwith Hill, and Scapa Flow, UK.

The resulting “limited” retaliatory strike from the US and Russia destroyed 50 strategic sites in China, as well as Shanghai and Guangzhou.

All the New England States except Maine, plus Texas, Hawaii, California, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, and Washington state, declared independence from the US and formed the Federal Republic of New England, with its capital at Boston, and The Pacific States of America, with its new capital in Bakersfield, California. Utah declared itself to be the Republic of Deseret. Nevada declared itself affiliated to the Pacific States, but disintegrated into Federal, Pacific, Deseret, and ungoverned territories. The Navajo and Great Sioux nations declared independence within their national territories in the Four Corners region, and Dakotas and western Minnesota and north-west Iowa. Mexico declared the Gadsden Purchase and annexation of former Mexican territories in the southwest null and void and began a series of incursions in the border regions. Texas declared independence, and declared war on Mexico. Alaska petitioned to join Canada, and was provisionally accepted as a Canadian self-governing territory.

The rump US government was overthrown by a military junta. The government in North Korea disintegrated and a ceasefire was declared on November 11, 2017, with a ceasefire in place, to be followed by a staged withdrawal to the 38th parallel. The EU, which had largely survived unscathed, emerged as the new world hyperpower, and guarantor of the cease-fire and armistice terms.

Total immediate casualties of the war were as follows:

Australia: 100 thousand
China: 50 million (estimated)
Denmark: 2 thousand
France: 3 thousand
Japan: 3.2 million
Nepal: 3 thousand
North Korea: 15 million
Russia: 1.9 million
South Korea: 9.6 million
Turkey: 5 thousand
UK: 120 thousand
USA: 16.5 million

Other combatant nations: under 1,000 casualties each

Of these casualties, approximately 1/4 were killed, and 3/4 were severely wounded.

An additional 150 million in early mortality is expected over the next 50 years.

disclaimer: I have no knowledge of actual US planning or deployments aside from what is available from public sources, primarily gloabalsecurity dot org. The force deployments are hypothetical, and based on what I would do if I was the US commander in theater and could set my own order of battle. There’s not a lot of armor because its not that great in built up urban areas nor mountains and forest without a good road infrastructure and I didn’t want the logistical tail. I didn’t go into political events in the US, Koreas, and other countries but the general story is things went to shit as soon as nukes started to be used, which was on the second day of the war. I left out HQ, artillery, naval and air units, and support units, as well as any specific ROK units entirely in the interests of moving along the narrative. As I said, I hope to God this all never happens.

Copyright © 2017 Henry Edward Hardy


13 August, 2017 - Posted by | history, Korea, Korean War, North Korea, nuclear war, scanlyze, South Korea, war | , , , , , , , ,


  1. “The US and North Korea exchanged warnings over the risk of war on Monday as Washington prepared for military exercises and Pyongyang repeated its threat of firing missiles into the sea off the coast of Guam.

    James Mattis, the US defence secretary, warned that a North Korean missile attack aimed at US territory “could escalate into war very quickly”. He said that US forces would know “within moments” if the trajectory of a North Korean missile was taking it towards Guam, a US territory that is home to military bases and 160,000 people.

    If a missile was judged to be about to hit Guam, Mattis said, “we will take it out” – a presumed reference to US missile defence systems around the island. If North Korean missiles are headed towards the seas around Guam, the defence secretary said it would be up to the president to decide how to respond.”

    Comment by scanlyze | 15 August, 2017 | Reply

  2. I want to offer some commentary on the above and why certain things play out the way I describe them.

    This thing really wrote itself in one sitting as fast as I could type and I had the somewhat dissociative experience of being surprised when certain things happened, like Russia allying with the US and China entering the war.

    This is fundamentally a work of literature and not a realistic projection of what would happen (I hope!) or a work of military analysis. Having said that, I tried to make it as verisimilitudenous as possible.

    The date of hostilities was chosen by picking the closest upcoming new moon from the day it was written. As I said in the text, I was informed by the US timing and maneuvers before the Gulf War.

    During the pre-war launch of the four NK missiles towards Guam, in my mind, the US did not commit THAAD or other assets to the shoot-down, not wanting to waste resources or give NK an estimate of US defensive deployments and efficiency. One was lost due to sabotage by US or UK special forces, and the mysterious one shot down in space was by a hypothetical Russian space-borne ABM system.

    The political background is a covert frenemy alliance between Putin and Trump, and Russia maneuvering to do maximum damage to everyone but themselves, as well as joining what they believed would be the winning side. The EU opts out because first of all, Germany did not like the clandestine Putin-Trump axis, and second, to sit out the war and not be sucked into a meatgrinder which would put intolerable stresses on the already-fragile EU.

    NK uses its supposed H bombs (or enhanced A bombs if you would) in naval warfare using suicide subs or container freight. They only get two of these to target and get them to work. I assume their bombs on missiles are actually copies of repurposed USSR-era tactical nuclear weapons obtained on the black market in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union. The two EMP’s are high-yield devices they fire after saturating US defenses with the rest of their missiles and they “get lucky” when two of them actually work. The EMP is modeled after the US 1961 Starfish Prime test. This is a pretty novel strategy as the usual assumption is the EMP goes first to disable enemy defenses on the ground or at sea.

    The political situation in the US falls apart in a way we haven’t seen since the Civil War. Even then, it took half a year for the Civil War to really gain steam. Here the US falls apart in two months. This is a literary device mainly, my background thoughts were of the RPG Twilight 2000, The Crusader Kings II mod “After the Fall,” classic sf such as “The Postman,”The Man in the High Castle,”Damnation Alley,” “A Boy and His Dog,” “Planet of the Apes” movies especially the recent very good remakes, and lots of post-nuclear movies and zombie movies such as “28 Days After” and “World War Z.” The “Pacific States of America” and the “New England Republic” come from a WWII strategy computer game mod for “Darkest Hour” called, “Kaiserreich.”

    Overall I am hammering on the late-Weimar, early Nazi period thing which is going on in the US under Trump, and modeling a lot on the real-life fall of the Soviet Union, with the additional catalyst of massive civil unrest and losing 4+ million dead in a nuclear war. Various Gurps modules also were in the back of my mind. And of course, the Fallout games, with my “Pacific States of America” being analogous to the “New California Republic” and my “Federal Republic of New England” corresponding to “The Commonwealth.”

    The US response is crippled compared to the first Korean War by several factors. The US is no longer the industrial and manufacturing superpower it was in 1950. The US now has basically no merchant marine. And the destruction of Busan and collapse of Japan.

    The units of school children is there for horror, but it’s based on a news release I read from NK about how 300 students had won an award for completing training as human bombs.

    The diplomatic history closely follows the First Korean War, with the twist of Russia backing the US and UN.

    The use of nuclear land mines by China is a real thing. For NK to use them in this way is hypothetical, but makes sense for their largest and their most primitive devices which can’t really be delivered except by ship, possibly.

    The accidental escalation scenario is there also for horror and as a literary device to bring the story to a quick and decisive resolution, but also is based on some of my most favorite Cold War era movies, such as “Fail Safe,” “Dr. Strangelove,” “The Bedford Incident,” and, particularly, “By Dawn’s Early Light.” The “ragged nuclear exchange causes conventional war to kind of inconclusively sputter out and society to fall apart” comes from Twilight 2000, Fallout, Gurps, and also John Shirley’s Eclipse books.

    Some of the Chinese targets don’t really make a lot of strategic sense, such as why make the rubble bounce in Busan? The assumption is that the Chinese missiles are hard-targeted by mechanical means of inertial guidance, to prevent the US from hacking them, or them being disabled by enhanced radiation weapons, so they just picked from a list of pre-targeted devices for the first wave, and then launched pretty much everything else at the US that was pre-targeted at strategic military targets. With Russia and Australia and Greenland and the UK they were a bit fastidious there and just wanted to cripple naval and surveillance and logistics centers, thus the strike on Ulan-Ude (major rail junction in Siberia.)

    The Chinese strike is kind of a best-case scenario for the US, as the estimated 220 Chinese warheads “only” destroy 48 targets. Plus some naval units I left out, for sure at least one US carrier. The Chinese targets are, major rocket bases and testing/development centers, nuclear weapons development and production facilities, command and control centers, and major ports, naval bases and logistics centers. Washington and Moscow were deliberately not targeted, as the Chinese were hoping to compel a collapse of the US and cripple the US nuclear forces in a first strike without losing Beijing or their other major population centers in the retaliatory strike.

    That Russia would be so circumspect in their retaliation is based on my estimation of Putin’s strategic mind. If the dead hand system, Система «Периметр», kicked in they would flatten not only China but the US as well.

    The casualties are pretty much pulled out of a hat, again for literary horror. But I did check the population of many of the cities destroyed so it is loosely based on that plus a rough estimate of military and civilian casualties from two months of pretty brutal, close quarters fighting.

    The NK and Chinese will try to infiltrate and surround allied troops and then hang onto them like a terrier on a rat, in order to blunt the impact of US air superiority.

    Although I didn’t mention it, the reason the Russian and French Foreign Legion don’t come out in my second Chosin Reservoir Battle is that the particular unit of Spetsnaz I chose, being the most badass of all the badass special forces (I know that’s very arguable, but at least they think that) sent in to plug the giant hole in the front lines, disperse to fight a guerrilla delaying action, Malaya-style, and the French Foreign Legion, being led by the French, get mauled in a Dien Bien Phu style siege at their base in a valley near Chuncheon when they likewise refuse to retreat and dig in and fight to the last man.

    I didn’t go in to the Middle East or Central Asia at all but the scenario is informed by bad outbreaks of fighting between all traditional enemies in that region. So India has another war with China and Pakistan, and the US doesn’t get to retrieve its elite units currently serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. Similarly the Israelis are pinned down and can’t help the US much except with intelligence, some small numbers of special forces, and air assets.

    The November 11 armistice day is a deliberate callback to the Great War, another brutal and senseless war which started through accidental escalation.

    The high post war mortality is due to political and economic destabilization/collapse, secondary effects from the nukes, and particularly large scale use of anthrax, which will remain deadly for many decades in the soil.

    All in all a fairly grim scenario, though it is to some degree a “best case” scenario for the allies militarily, and politically, if not in terms of national stability and cohesion, and a marginal, Pyhrric UN victory, much like the First Korean War.

    It is ultimately a dry and bitter cautionary tale in the vein of Mark Twain’s “War Prayer” or much of the works of Ambrose Bierce, though told in an annalistic frame.

    Although it is a grim and brutal tale, I personally felt better after writing it, as I was able to exorcise some ghosts rattling around in my brain perhaps by externalizing them and confining them to paper.

    Looking forward to any comments, and particularly with regard to the realism of the military and political scenario, and how it can be improved from the standpoint of literature.

    Comment by scanlyze | 15 August, 2017 | Reply

  3. Kim Jong Un briefed on Guam attack plan, will watch ‘stupid American behavior’
    Tuesday, August 15, 2017 11:48AM

    North Korea’s Kim Jong Un was briefed by one of his generals on the country’s plan to launch missiles toward Guam, according to South Korea’s largest news agency, but the combative leader appeared to put the heated rhetoric on pause, saying he would watch “stupid American behavior for a bit longer.”

    KCNA, the state news agency of North Korea, said in a statement, “Dear supreme leader has spent a long time to review the plan to attack Guam by surrounding it and conferred with the leaders present,” according to a translation by the South Korean news agency Yonhap.

    On Monday Kim reportedly met with his Gen. Kim Rak Gyom, warning soldiers to stand ready to strike “at all times,” according to the Yonhap report.

    The order to his army was reportedly followed by more bluster but also a call for the U.S. to ease tensions.

    “Dear supreme leader said that the Americans’ reckless military confrontational behavior has ended up the U.S. trapping themselves with their own hands and are spending pathetic fate by weary minutes and seconds and that dear supreme leader will watch such stupid American behavior for a bit longer,” KCNA said, according to Yonhap.

    “The United States, which was the first to bring numerous strategic nuclear equipment near us, should first make the right decision and show through actions if they wish to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and prevent a dangerous military clash,” Kim was quoted as saying.

    When the preparations for battle were complete, Kim took a photo with his soldiers.

    “Dear supreme reader took a commemorative photo with the soldiers, who welcomed the dear supreme leader with utmost excitement, to whom the dear supreme leader responded by waving at them,” KCNA reported.

    U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis was asked on Tuesday whether he believed Kim was going to hold off on a missile launch targeting Guam, and what the U.S. would do if such a launch took place.

    “Here in the Pentagon, we are part of the sentinels for our nation, and we stand ready to defend it,” Mattis replied.

    Pyongyang’s saber rattling comes a week after the North Korean army declared it will launch four intermediate ballistic missiles near Guam by mid-August. On Aug. 5 the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution imposing sanctions to devastate the country’s economy. China announced on Tuesday it will phase out supplying North Korea with crucial coal.

    Kim’s rhetoric on Monday came shortly after Mattis harshly warned North Korea not to engage in any sort of aggression against the U.S.

    “If they shoot at the United States, I’m assuming they’ve hit the United States … If they do that, then it’s game on,” he said.

    Comment by scanlyze | 15 August, 2017 | Reply

  4. Regarding this purely theoretical scenario, based on STARFISH PRIME, of NK using EMP-enhanced bombs to attack the South Korean and Japanese electric grid and computer systems:

    “”The H-bomb, the explosive power of which is adjustable from tens kiloton to hundreds kiloton, is a multi-functional thermonuclear nuke with great destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes for super-powerful EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack according to strategic goals,” KCNA reported in English.
    Electromagnetic pulse is an intense wave of electrical energy generated by the detonation of a nuclear weapon.

    “Nuclear EMP has the demonstrated potential to disrupt, damage, or destroy a wide variety of electrical and electronic equipment,” according to the US Department of Energy.

    EMP waves can disable all sorts of electrical devices, but their biggest threat is to the electrical grid and long-haul communications, a previously published Energy Department report said. One blast could knock out power and communications over hundreds or even thousands of kilometers, the report said.”

    Comment by scanlyze | 4 September, 2017 | Reply

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